Wealth Transfer
Could Lead to
Charitable Windfall
ally come to fruition? Probably not. But
experts say that doesn’t mean colleges
won’t still enjoy a significant financial
windfall from the impending transfer
of wealth.
s the baby boomer generation ages into retirement, there
is an enormous amount of speculation about the transfer of
wealth likely to occur during the first half of this century,
and how much of that money will go to charity.
In 1998, researchers at the Center of Wealth and Philanthropy at
A stubborn economic recession and a few years of flat to negative growth have
since tempered those projections. Articles in The Chronicle of Philanthropy and else-
where have questioned the estimates and the rate of growth necessary to sustain
them. Even the report’s authors have stepped forward to clarify their findings and,
where necessary, to rein in expectations. In a letter to the Chronicle, researcher
John Havens wrote, “No model is going to predict behavior 55 years into the future
(or 20 years into the future) with close accuracy. None of these projections should
be taken as anything more than ballpark estimates.”
Some funding experts have pointed out that year-over-year projections are dif-
ficult given the instability of the economy. While giving typically slows in periods
of recession, it accelerates in times of prosperity. Will the $6 trillion figure eventu-
Simple Projection of
Charitable Bequests at
Annual Rate of 17 Percent
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Simple Projection 17%
$84.6 (in millions)
$99.0
$115.8
$135.5
$158.5
$185.4
$217.0
$253.9
$397.0
Source: Notes on the Wealth Transfer Estimates
Originally Presented in “Millionaires and the Millennium,” Center on Wealth and Philanthropy, Boston
College, 2006.
